Crude oil prices briefly breached $65 per barrel for the first time since November, driven by escalating U.S. pressure on Iran and attacks on tankers near a critical terminal for Kazakh crude on Russia's Black Sea coast (Yahoo Finance/Bloomberg). The geopolitical premium is returning to oil markets as supply disruption risks multiply across multiple regions simultaneously (GuruFocus).
Supply disruptions
Three oil tankers were reportedly hit by unidentified drones in the Black Sea, adding to supply concerns (The Telegraph).
Kazakh crude exports from the key CPC port in the Black Sea were slashed due to bad weather, maintenance, and drone damage (Bloomberg).
Russian crude cargoes are piling up on tankers as deliveries falter, with at least 12 vessels full of Urals crude idling off Oman's coast and additional ships anchored near China (Yahoo Finance/Bloomberg).
Price outlook
Analysts at Bernstein see Brent crude averaging $65 a barrel in 2026, down from about $69 in 2025 but above the $61 consensus, viewing 2026 as the bottom of the cycle with prices recovering toward $70 in 2027 (Business Hub ME).
The EIA projects Brent crude to average $55.08 per barrel for 2026, while Russian analysts surveyed by TASS expect the average price to reach $61-65 per barrel (TASS/BSS News).
Market analysis
Trading recommendation: Establish tactical long positions in energy equities (integrated majors, selected E&Ps) to capture the geopolitical premium. Consider energy call spreads for defined-risk upside exposure. Maintain gold allocation as portfolio hedge against policy uncertainty and inflation tail risks. For fixed income, consider selective MBS exposure given government support dynamics.